So far, the price drops are minor. Oregon has the biggest decline at 0.9%, followed by Georgia (0.8%), Montana (0.2%), South Carolina (0.3%) and Texas (0.1%). Prices in three other states — Florida (0.2%), South Dakota (0.3%) and Louisiana (0.4%) — have grown, not fallen, but by less than 1%.
The cooling in Texas and Florida is notable because they were among the top destinations during the wave of migration set off by the COVID-19 pandemic, particularly the Austin and Miami metropolitan areas.
The median sale price of pending home sales for a single-family home in Texas has been trending downward since November, when prices were rising at a 2.6% clip. Prices have fallen three weeks in a row.
It’s a similar story in Florida but even more pronounced. Through December and mid-January, home prices consistently rose by 2.4%, but fell to 0% in just a month’s span.
It’s no secret what’s driving the trend. Inventory is jumping all over the country, including Texas and Florida, where single-family homes for sale are up year over year by 30.4% and 38.4%, respectively. Only one state’s inventory is down on an annual basis — North Dakota with an 11.7% drop.
Some states are experiencing an even higher growth rate in inventory, which will put downward pressure on home prices. Those include California (49.5%), Maine (43%), Arizona (42.6%), and Tennessee (38.7%).
Despite the rise in inventory, home sales have not yet shown meaningful increases. Total sales contracts pending are currently down 3.5% compared to 2024, and for most of the year they’ve lagged behind last year’s pace.
