Bitcoin continues to be shaky at around $26,000 after a violent crash last Thursday. However, the flagship crypto asset is not likely to see prominent gains before the much-anticipated halving that is expected to occur on April 20, 2024.
According to Pantera Capital’s recent projection, the next halving would see Bitcoin surging to $35k before it and $148k after the fact, citing historical patterns.
Bitcoin Halving Observations by Pantera
Pantera Capital asserts that the performance of Bitcoin’s price is greatly influenced by its halving cycles. With the next one expected in 2024, the company is betting the trend will continue.
In the latest edition of their “Blockchain Letter,” published on August 22nd, the crypto-focused hedge fund reiterated its optimistic predictions for Bitcoin’s price in 2024 following the halving when the block reward fell from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC.
Pantera stated that the first halving reduced the supply of new BTC by 17% of the total outstanding bitcoins and added that the event had a huge impact on new supply as well as on the price. The second, in 2016, slashed the supply of new bitcoins by only one-third as much as the first. Pantera observed this decrease in supply corresponded precisely to a one-third reduction in price impact.
Similarly, the halving in 2020 reduced the supply of new bitcoins by 43% relative to the previous halving. Panteral noted that “it had a 23% as big an impact on price.”
“The next halving is expected to occur on April 20, 2024. Since most bitcoins are now in circulation, each halving will be almost exactly half as big a reduction in new supply. If history were to repeat itself, the next halving would see bitcoin rising to $35k before the halving and $148k after.”
New Peak in July 2025?
Pantera said that Bitcoin has historically bottomed 477 days prior to the halving, experiencing an ascent in the run-up to the event, and surged dramatically afterward.
The post-halving rallies have averaged 480 days from the event to the peak of that next bull cycle. In such a scenario, with April 2024 halving as the starting point, Bitcoin is anticipated to attain its next all-time peak around July 2025.