For the past three years, the Dallas Cowboys felt short of expectations.
They’d power through the regular season and then exit early in the playoffs, unable to hold their own against the most talented and well-coached teams.
Then came this season.
All of a sudden, the 12-5 record the Cowboys mounted each year from 2021-2023 looks different.
Because as November begins, the Cowboys already have those five losses. And this time, they’re joined by just three wins.
“We need to win a game,” head coach Mike McCarthy said after a 27-21 loss at the Atlanta Falcons. “We have five losses. I clearly understand where that puts us.”
The shortcomings that dug this Cowboys hole vary.
There’s the league-worst running game Dallas carried into this week, averaging just 74.1 yards per game and 3.41 per carry.
There’s the second-worst time of possession and second-worst red-zone success rate the offense posted through eight weeks, each arguably also related to Dallas’ nonexistent run game.
The Cowboys’ defense lost its top two edge rushers Micah Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence to injuries a month ago, contributing to the Cowboys’ league-worst red-zone defense and to the second-worst points per game allowed through the first eight weeks.
Greg Olsen as Cowboys give up third TD of days: “No team struggles with pre-snap motion more than the Dallas Cowboys. … That’s something the Cowboys defense has struggled with all year.”pic.twitter.com/3kmp8ZxRob
— Jori Epstein (@JoriEpstein) November 3, 2024
And while Week 9 rankings will require all games finishing, the repeated pre-snap penalties that hurt the Cowboys against the Falcons have become the rule rather than the exception.
Oh, and quarterback Dak Prescott missed the fourth quarter with a hamstring injury.
All of this would make plenty of team decision-makers think critically about their 2024 investment. Sure, teams should and will try to win in most situations. But mortgaging future years when the current season has already slipped so far out of hand is a risky endeavor.
So as team owner Jerry Jones tried to sell hope in the aftermath of Cowboys-Falcons, Jones offered many of his go-to pleas for positivity while also dropping intentionally that the Cowboys could make moves ahead of the NFL trade deadline Tuesday.
His suggestion begs questions.
“We’ll probably do a couple things this week,” Jones told reporters outside the postgame locker room. “If things work out for us the way we’d like for them to.”
A fitting caveat.
Is a trade realistic with Cowboys’ outlook?
The Cowboys have clear areas of need, from offensive line to running back to just about every defensive position including perhaps coordinator. Receiver depth could help CeeDee Lamb.
Kicker Brandon Aubrey is the only excellent player they’re fielding this year.
But as McCarthy’s contract expires in as soon as nine games, and injuries continue to mount, the Cowboys must ask themselves: Why are they considering making a trade?
Are they trading to improve the 2024 roster? Are they trading to improve the team for years to come? Is there just a deal so cost-effective they can’t pass it up? Or are they trading to keep fans engaged this season?
All four justifications are hard to defend.
If the Cowboys are trading to help a 2024 roster that has sustained injuries to its two top players on offense and three top players on defense, the decision seems short-sighted. At 3-5, the Cowboys have a 4 percent chance of making the playoffs, per The Athletic’s playoff predictor. Competing against the 7-2 Washington Commanders and 6-2 Philadelphia Eagles, the Cowboys’ chance of winning the NFC East is less than 1 percent. This franchise has reached the playoffs each of the past three years. A mere playoff berth, that Dallas looks unlikely to win, does not support the development cost.
What if the Cowboys have a chance to acquire a player who could fill a position of need for years to come? Dallas is scheduled to receive compensatory draft picks after losing several players in free agency this year — why not use them? This argument would be easier to defend if the coaching staff was likely to return in 2025. But the Cowboys’ performance this season does not advocate for a McCarthy extension. Half a year into defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer’s stint, Dallas’ defensive woes Sunday ranged from missed tackles to blown coverages to players running into each other to 10 men on the field for an early third down. Zimmer’s 2025 status is in question.
If the Cowboys are likely to front a new coaching staff next season, projecting talent acquisitions for an unknown scheme is bold.
And the likelihood of a cost-effective player at the trade deadline is slim. Sure, some teams are trying to game the compensatory pick system. But more often, teams overpay in free agency and at the trade deadline to help their team develop or contend. The Cowboys fit neither box.
Which leads us to the final reason Jones would advocate for a trade: fan interest.
“It takes two to tango but we’ve got some things in the mill,” said Jones, the ultimate salesman. “We’re gonna do everything we can at all times to improve this team and in our judgment, if what you have to give up helps improve it, we’ll do it.
“We’ll go for it.”
Determining severity of Dak’s injury is next step for Cowboys
Jones joined several players who said they felt confident entering the Falcons game that Dallas would beat Atlanta. The Cowboys felt they matched up well in this NFC contest. They ultimately led for just four minutes and 11 seconds, all in the first quarter.
Dallas completed just 22% of third- and fourth-down attempts (4-of-18). The team’s only touchdowns came on a relatively lucky bobbled catch and a near-garbage time one.
Hope wasn’t sufficient to beat a well-schemed, talented team.
“I really regret this for all our Dallas Cowboys fans,” Jones said. “Personally, I’m a long way from being dismayed about our team, about this year. Not dismayed. I’m concerned.
“Should be concerned.”
The top reason for Cowboys concern is Prescott’s health. Prescott scrambled four times against the Falcons, including for a 22-yard gain that marked the Cowboys’ longest rush of the season.
The last of his four scrambles, a 5-yard gain, was called back for a holding penalty. That didn’t save Prescott from hurting his hamstring on what he believes was the tackle from that scramble. He felt it tighten after that late third-quarter run but initially dismissed it as discomfort that comes with a physical game.
Then, on a stop route, Prescott reached the top of his drop and “felt a pull … something I’d never felt. Tough to walk on it at that point.”
He asked to keep playing if further injury wasn’t a concern, but the Cowboys’ medical team told him he wouldn’t be able to protect himself. Imaging on Monday will determine the degree of severity.
“When we get a picture of it, we’ll know how bad it is,” Prescott said. “It’ll take a lot for me to not be out there.”
That decision may be beyond his control.
Cooper Rush once again showed his steady demeanor as a backup, completing 13 of 25 passes for 115 yards and the late touchdown after Prescott’s 18-of-24 mark for 133 yards and a score.
But the Cowboys would be hard-pressed to make the playoffs with a healthy Prescott, Lamb, Parsons, Lawrence and cornerback DaRon Bland. Knowing that each of them are battling injuries should deter trade-deadline activity.
Either way, expect McCarthy to coach out the rest of his contract. Jones asserted his belief in McCarthy before taking questions Sunday afternoon. He reiterated his belief when asked.
“I know how hard he works, I like his football mind,” Jones said. “He’s got, in my mind, an outstanding coaching record. He’s really good with the players. They think highly of him. He’s got a lot of fire in his belly. So I’m just giving you this. I like the positives I see.
“I’m good with Mike.”
