The next time some asshole says something stupid about betting markets and politics, like “More accurate than polls, because real money is on the line” it’s worth reminding them that as with any market prices can be manipulated. And that’s apparently the case with Peter Thiel’s Polymarket recently. Just four accounts have flooded the market with $30mil in bets recently, distorting or inflating Trump’s chances against Kamala Harris.
Unlike with stock exchanges, there are no safeguards against price manipulation. It’s all buyer beware, wild west stuff.
Crypto Bros getting played again.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls. But in one popular betting market, the odds have skewed heavily in Trump’s favor, raising questions about a recent flurry of wagers and who is behind them.
Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 62% chance of winning on Thursday, while Harris’s chances were 38%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.
Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.
But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.
“There’s strong reason to believe they are the same entity,” said Miguel Morel, chief executive of Arkham Intelligence, a blockchain analysis firm that examined the accounts.
Even wingnuts are getting suspicious.
A couple of weeks ago it was basically 50-50. The polls haven’t changed much in the interim.
Bad actors abound these days.
